Category: Market Outlook

The RBA appears content to leave policy on hold for the foreseeable future. With inflation under control and the economy showing cautious improvement, aggressive rate cuts are unlikely in the remainder of 2025. Any shift in policy is more likely to be down than up — but timing will depend on how consumer demand and the labour market evolve.

Growing evidence of a recovery in GDP growth, including household spending, has seen the futures market pare back pricing for future interest rate cuts. In effect, one 25 basis point interest rate cut has been ‘taken out’ of market pricing in the past month to the point where just two further cuts are priced between now and the middle of 2026.

There is a growing list of economic indicators pointing to stronger growth in consumer spending and sentiment, dwelling construction, business confidence and exports. These more favourable trends have been positively influenced by falling inflation and solid wages growth.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has delivered its third interest rate cut of 2025, trimming the cash rate by another 25 basis points. Since the start of the year, cumulative rate reductions have begun to pack more of a punch — and the RBA hopes this momentum will help bolster economic growth and prevent unemployment from climbing too far.

Confirmation of on-target inflation and further evidence of a sluggish pace of economic growth was not enough for the RBA to lower interest rates at its 8 July meeting. It surprised economists and the market, leaving official interest rates at 3.85 per cent, just 50 basis points down from the peak. A 25 basis point cut was expected and priced into markets.

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets and economists alike this month by holding interest rates steady, despite clear signs that inflation is returning to target levels. The decision, announced on 8 July, came as a surprise to many who had expected a rate cut, given the recent softening in inflation data. In short, the direction of rates hasn’t changed – but the timing has. The market still anticipates rate cuts later in the year, just not as soon as originally expected.

The moderate pick up in house prices in recent months is linked to a stalling in the growth of new supply, with new listings for sale falling and immigration inflows above official forecasts in the March quarter 2025. The resilient strength in the labour market has, for now, helped to support the housing market which has been further assisted by the early effects of lower interest rates.

Given current economic conditions, there is near unanimity that the RBA will resume its interest rate cutting cycle on 20 May with further interest rate cuts expected over the following 12 months. Low inflation, a soft economy and signs of a weakening in the labour market are all factors that has markets pricing in a cash rate below 3 per cent in the first half of 2026, down from the current 4.10 per cent.

Global investors and policy makers continue to assess the extent of the negative impact of US President Trump’s tariff policies. It is likely to remain a moving feast in the months ahead with some retaliation and adjustments to the tariff plans seemingly inevitable. One thing where there is unanimity is the effect of the tariffs – negative for international trade and global economic growth. The major uncertainty is the extent of the fallout.