Category: Market Outlook

Credit update and outlook

As we approach the end of the interest rate rising cycle, we are seeing various indicators stabilise, including building materials, supplies, and stock. This is a positive sign that the market is adjusting, and we are closely monitoring these trends.

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2024 Economic Forecast

“It’s going to be a tough first half of 2024, I think, for the economy. But when we get to the second half, the tax cuts that we’re hearing so much about, will come through. If we get interest rate cuts and inflations under control, then the second half of 2024 will be a better year for the economy. And we could even have a pretty strong outlook for 2025.”

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What to expect for the economy in 2024

2023 ended with a clear and marked slowdown… The key issues early in 2024 will be the extent of the fall in inflation – if it falls earlier and more aggressively than the RBA is currently forecasting, the start of the interest rate cutting cycle will be brought forward to the first half of the year.

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RBA hikes rates despite slower growth: House prices momentum is slowing

House prices continue to rise at a solid pace with the strong demand / weak supply dynamics still at play… but the largest cities continue to register large price increases. Since the low point early in 2023, house prices have risen 8 per cent to be at a new record high. Importantly, auction clearance rates have turned down from the mid 2023 peak, while at the same time new listings of properties for sale are rising as sellers take advantage of what are positive issues for them to list their property.

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House prices remain strong, as inflation continues to ease

One of the key issues for the Australian economy in 2023 has been the strength in house prices… The end point… is that house prices are set to rise by 10 per cent in 2023, not fall 20 per cent, as the demand and supply dynamics underpin prices across all capital cities and in many regional areas. From an economic perspective, this is good news.

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Oil prices shock the world as the economy continues to slow

These events have had a significant impact on global financial markets which have reaction by pricing in a higher probability – but not a certainty – that official interest rates will need to rise further to squash any re-emerging inflation pressures while at the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have been dramatically scaled back.

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