Stephen Koukoulas unpacks inflation, interest rates, housing divergence and the policy path ahead.
In our latest webinar, Zagga’s Economist-in-Residence, Stephen Koukoulas, examines the forces shaping Australia’s economic trajectory in 2026.
Describing the economy as entering a “Goldilocks” phase – neither overheating nor faltering – Stephen explores the resilience of global growth, the evolving inflation narrative, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s data-dependent stance following its recent rate hikes.
The session also addresses the widening divergence across Australia’s housing markets, expectations for a reform-oriented May Federal Budget, and the longer-term structural challenge of weak productivity growth.
"The economy’s expanding, consumer spending’s solid, business investment’s going to be pretty good… [I call it] 'The Goldilocks', to use that terminology — not too hot, not too cold, just right."
Key themes covered include:
- the uncertain but upwardly biased interest rate outlook
- divergence across capital city housing markets
- the anticipated contractionary federal budget
- cost-of-living pressures and wage moderation
- the long-term drag of weak productivity growth.
Watch the full webinar recording to hear the complete discussion and Q&A.
Stephen Koukoulas is Managing Director of Market Economics, having had 30 years as an economist in government, banking, financial markets and policy formulation. Stephen was Senior Economic Advisor to Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, worked in the Commonwealth Treasury and was the global head of economic research and strategy for TD Securities in London.
